National vs. State Polls: Which is More Relevant?

With only a couple days left before the election, the national polls show a virtual tie. But do those national polls actually matter? That is a matter of debate as of late, due to how our electoral process actually works.  But what do the state polls tell us about the how 

the popular vote might play out? Five Thirty Eight examines that, and also gives you the latest forecast regarding next weeks election (Obama's chances are up to 77.4%). Pay particular attention to the forecast regarding the popular vote (contradicts many of the the current polls).  Share your thoughts on the story and/or the forecast!